Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 92813.129125 97875.965742 102936.120415 108369.658690 114035.521127 119765.954274 125996.275781
2025-09-07 84869.594556 92644.471341 100630.274845 109435.318600 118860.595591 128636.552716 139532.048453
2025-09-14 79118.093005 88762.674714 98884.272572 110276.895853 122721.066644 135879.039536 150821.403772
2025-09-21 74203.593042 85200.193788 96951.672082 110408.817145 125356.277003 141413.024216 159928.206686
2025-09-28 70205.025965 82268.646784 95366.648893 110592.322150 127750.507070 146433.733789 168260.138770
2025-10-05 67867.220099 80969.807756 95395.452453 112385.162748 131772.811904 153131.870216 178364.586110
2025-10-12 65660.382930 79645.478080 95241.317941 113830.216619 135286.021037 159174.868616 187681.528932
2025-10-19 63316.384957 78014.126422 94603.780212 114600.119282 137927.147991 164155.618618 195746.493454
2025-10-26 60845.158839 76102.296727 93523.127403 114746.275957 139754.767759 168135.026853 202617.034115
2025-11-02 58773.867513 74559.909711 92781.410020 115202.717383 141872.127432 172398.259917 209788.017837
2025-11-09 56614.733664 72815.357576 91713.093775 115191.452892 143370.929222 175891.516125 216031.705793
2025-11-16 55233.268387 71947.999263 91635.532858 116312.445279 146175.657186 180898.413556 224057.329791
2025-11-23 53216.535306 70249.705095 90516.501626 116154.097214 147445.848319 184111.761313 230014.650499
2025-11-30 52161.622302 69702.027541 90766.430996 117636.972246 150688.464635 189687.698859 238828.923218
2025-12-07 50925.179976 68875.587263 90630.153321 118610.360021 153288.730499 194487.493844 246728.539519
2025-12-14 49370.722833 67589.108974 89871.949329 118768.562523 154854.551472 198017.078234 253091.278089
2025-12-21 47926.794849 66392.546102 89180.051164 118967.454493 156438.021314 201549.457302 259456.145402
2025-12-28 47356.324851 66297.039066 89856.582861 120871.351861 160137.909722 207683.499331 269036.695407
2026-01-04 46654.186600 66000.355522 90253.743070 122405.148783 163369.513484 213250.868087 277950.558963
2026-01-11 45673.238021 65302.522869 90107.365487 123222.182613 165684.313996 217682.793463 285477.774669
2026-01-18 44454.310299 64250.492055 89469.150857 123377.281669 167137.766155 221032.194958 291664.446667
2026-01-25 43432.749602 63430.619978 89104.692720 123861.604649 168994.327480 224880.960111 298485.866849
2026-02-01 42252.126915 62360.935823 88380.981999 123849.652933 170192.513109 227890.600920 304256.927998